Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
SFSan Francisco 49ersQB Brock Purdyat
SEASeattle SeahawksQB Drew Lock
Record 4-0, last 4: win, win, win, winRecord 3-1, last 4: win, win, loss, win
Final: SF 32, SEA 29. Our pick (SEA) lost.
Matches the marketWe compare our expected margin with the market line. Less than 1.5 points apart: it matches the market. 1.5 to 3.5: slight difference. 3.5 or more: strong disagreement.
Who wins?
We gave the Seattle Seahawks a 58% chance to win. The market gave them 60%.
Chance to win · Nalytix NFL model vs. the market
| Team | Our model | MarketWorked out from what US sportsbooks pay for each team to win, with their built-in margin taken out. Shown only for comparison: Nalytix offers no betting services. | GapOur chance minus the market's, in percentage points. +5 means we give this team 5 points more than the market does. |
|---|---|---|---|
 SFSan Francisco 49ers | 42% | 40% | +2 |
 SEASeattle Seahawks | 58% | 60% | −2 |
Our modelThe market: the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse
By how much?
We expected the Seattle Seahawks to win by 2.4 points; the market said 3.
Expected margin in points · our model vs. the market
- Our expected marginHow many points we expect the favorite to win by, on average. Real games vary a lot around it: in our tests, the final margin missed it by about 10 points on average, and the market's line by almost as much.
- SEA by 2.4
- Market lineThe point spread posted by sportsbooks: the margin the betting market expects. Here, the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse. We show it to compare, not to beat it: over 1,977 games from 2019 to 2026, when our model and the line disagreed, the final margin landed on our model's side 50.2% of the time, no better than a coin flip.
- SEA by 3
How it could go
We expected the final margin to land between SEA by 20 and SF by 14, 8 times out of 10.The middle 8 in 10 of how 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin. Tested season by season, each season estimated only from the others, the final margin landed inside this range 81.7% of the time.
- SEA wins
- SF wins
- Our expected margin
- Market line
- Final margin
- 26%SEA by 9 or more
- 32%SEA by 1 to 8
- 26%SF by 1 to 8
- 16%SF by 9 or more
How 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin, kept in line with our chance to win above.
Every margin, as a table
| Wins by | SEA | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.9% | 2.2% |
| 2 | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 3 | 8.8% | 7.5% |
| 4 | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| 5 | 2.9% | 2.3% |
| 6 | 3.4% | 3.2% |
| 7 | 5.3% | 3.5% |
| 8 | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| 9 | 0.7% | 1.0% |
| 10 | 3.0% | 2.3% |
| 11 | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| 12 | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| 13 | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| 14 | 2.5% | 2.0% |
| 15 | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 16 | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| 17 | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| 18 | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| 19 | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 20 | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| 21 | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| 22 | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 23 | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| 24 | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| 25 | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| 26 | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 27 | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 28 or more | 3.4% | 1.4% |
Why?
The biggest factor is the gap in team strength: 2.4 points to SEA.
Points each factor adds to the marginEach factor is worth a number of points. Added up, they give our expected margin (last row). Team ratings move after every game, based on the score and the opponent.
- Team strengthSEA +2.4
- Home fieldSEA +1.7
- QB Drew Lock (SEA)SF +1.5
- QB Brock Purdy (SF)SF +0.2
- Expected marginSEA by 2.4
In plain words
- Overall strength: Seattle Seahawks (#1 in the league) rates above San Francisco 49ers (#2): +2.4 pts to Seattle Seahawks.
- Home field: +1.7 pts to Seattle Seahawks.
- Drew Lock is below Seattle Seahawks' usual QB level: −1.5 pts to Seattle Seahawks.
- Caution: Drew Lock's rating rests on few recent games (3 starts in 2 seasons).
Context
Before this game: SF 4-0, SEA 3-1 this season.
Starting quarterbacks: Brock Purdy (SF), Drew Lock (SEA).
This season · last 4 games
San Francisco 49ers4-0
- 24-14 vs DEN (win)
- 36-30 vs ARI (win)
- 35-13 vs MIA (win)
- 27-7 at LA (win)
Seattle Seahawks3-1
- 30-23 vs LAC (win)
- 31-33 at WAS (loss)
- 31-7 at ARI (win)
- 13-10 vs NE (win)