SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
BUFBuffalo BillsQB Josh Allenat
LALos Angeles RamsQB Matthew Stafford
Record 3-1, last 4: win, win, win, lossRecord 2-2, last 4: loss, win, loss, win
Free analysisSlight differenceWe compare our expected margin with the market line. Less than 1.5 points apart: it matches the market. 1.5 to 3.5: slight difference. 3.5 or more: strong disagreement.
Who wins?
We have it as a coin flip. The market favors the Los Angeles Rams (62%).
Chance to win · Nalytix NFL model vs. the market
| Team | Our model | MarketWorked out from what US sportsbooks pay for each team to win, with their built-in margin taken out. Shown only for comparison: Nalytix offers no betting services. | GapOur chance minus the market's, in percentage points. +5 means we give this team 5 points more than the market does. |
|---|---|---|---|
 BUFBuffalo Bills | 50% | 38% | +12 |
 LALos Angeles Rams | 50% | 62% | −12 |
Our modelThe market: the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse
By how much?
We expect an even game; the market favors the Los Angeles Rams by 3.5 points.
Expected margin in points · our model vs. the market
- Our expected marginHow many points we expect the favorite to win by, on average. Real games vary a lot around it: in our tests, the final margin missed it by about 10 points on average, and the market's line by almost as much.
- Even
- Market lineThe point spread posted by sportsbooks: the margin the betting market expects. Here, the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse. We show it to compare, not to beat it: over 1,977 games from 2019 to 2026, when our model and the line disagreed, the final margin landed on our model's side 50.2% of the time, no better than a coin flip.
- LA by 3.5
How it could go
8 times out of 10, the final margin lands between LA by 17 and BUF by 17.The middle 8 in 10 of how 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin. Tested season by season, each season estimated only from the others, the final margin landed inside this range 81.7% of the time.
- LA wins
- BUF wins
- Our expected margin
- Market line
- 21%LA by 9 or more
- 29%LA by 1 to 8
- 29%BUF by 1 to 8
- 21%BUF by 9 or more
How 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin, kept in line with our chance to win above.
Every margin, as a table
| Wins by | LA | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| 2 | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| 3 | 7.8% | 7.7% |
| 4 | 3.1% | 3.2% |
| 5 | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| 6 | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| 7 | 4.5% | 4.4% |
| 8 | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 9 | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 10 | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| 11 | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| 12 | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| 13 | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| 14 | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 15 | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 16 | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| 17 | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| 18 | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 19 | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 20 | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 21 | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 23 | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 24 | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 25 | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 28 or more | 2.4% | 2.3% |
Why?
The biggest factor is the gap in team strength: 1.9 points to BUF.
Points each factor adds to the marginEach factor is worth a number of points. Added up, they give our expected margin (last row). Team ratings move after every game, based on the score and the opponent.
- Team strengthBUF +1.9
- Home fieldLA +1.7
- QB Matthew Stafford (LA)LA +0.3
- Expected marginEven
In plain words
- Overall strength: Buffalo Bills (#5 in the league) rates above Los Angeles Rams (#10): +1.9 pts to Buffalo Bills.
- Home field: +1.7 pts to Los Angeles Rams.
Context
Before this game: BUF 3-1, LA 2-2 this season.
Starting quarterbacks: Josh Allen (BUF), Matthew Stafford (LA).
This season · last 4 games
Buffalo Bills3-1
- 26-29 vs NE (loss)
- 24-16 vs LAC (win)
- 41-31 vs DET (win)
- 36-31 at HOU (win)
Los Angeles Rams2-2
- 24-20 at PHI (win)
- 26-30 at DEN (loss)
- 28-6 vs NYG (win)
- 7-27 vs SF (loss)