Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
LVLas Vegas RaidersQB Kirk Cousinsat
NENew England PatriotsQB Drake Maye
Record 3-1, last 4: win, win, win, lossRecord 2-2, last 4: loss, win, loss, win
Final: LV 17, NE 45. Our pick (NE) won.
Slight differenceWe compare our expected margin with the market line. Less than 1.5 points apart: it matches the market. 1.5 to 3.5: slight difference. 3.5 or more: strong disagreement.
Who wins?
We gave the New England Patriots a 66% chance to win. The market gave them 62%.
Chance to win · Nalytix NFL model vs. the market
| Team | Our model | MarketWorked out from what US sportsbooks pay for each team to win, with their built-in margin taken out. Shown only for comparison: Nalytix offers no betting services. | GapOur chance minus the market's, in percentage points. +5 means we give this team 5 points more than the market does. |
|---|---|---|---|
 LVLas Vegas Raiders | 34% | 38% | −4 |
 NENew England Patriots | 66% | 62% | +4 |
Our modelThe market: the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse
By how much?
We expected the New England Patriots to win by 5.2 points; the market said 3.5.
Expected margin in points · our model vs. the market
- Our expected marginHow many points we expect the favorite to win by, on average. Real games vary a lot around it: in our tests, the final margin missed it by about 10 points on average, and the market's line by almost as much.
- NE by 5.2
- Market lineThe point spread posted by sportsbooks: the margin the betting market expects. Here, the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse. We show it to compare, not to beat it: over 1,977 games from 2019 to 2026, when our model and the line disagreed, the final margin landed on our model's side 50.2% of the time, no better than a coin flip.
- NE by 3.5
How it could go
We expected the final margin to land between NE by 23 and LV by 10, 8 times out of 10.The middle 8 in 10 of how 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin. Tested season by season, each season estimated only from the others, the final margin landed inside this range 81.7% of the time.
- NE wins
- LV wins
- Our expected margin
- Market line
- Final margin
- 34%NE by 9 or more
- 32%NE by 1 to 8
- 22%LV by 1 to 8
- 12%LV by 9 or more
How 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin, kept in line with our chance to win above.
Every margin, as a table
| Wins by | NE | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 3 | 8.2% | 6.8% |
| 4 | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| 5 | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| 6 | 4.3% | 3.6% |
| 7 | 5.4% | 3.3% |
| 8 | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| 9 | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| 10 | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| 11 | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| 12 | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| 13 | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| 14 | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| 15 | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 16 | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| 17 | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| 18 | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| 19 | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 20 | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| 21 | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| 22 | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 23 | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| 24 | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| 25 | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 26 | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| 27 | 0.8% | <0.1% |
| 28 or more | 5.7% | 0.5% |
Why?
The biggest factor is the gap in team strength: 5.6 points to NE.
Points each factor adds to the marginEach factor is worth a number of points. Added up, they give our expected margin (last row). Team ratings move after every game, based on the score and the opponent.
- Team strengthNE +5.6
- Home fieldNE +1.7
- QB Drake Maye (NE)NE +0.8
- QB Kirk Cousins (LV)LV +3
- Expected marginNE by 5.2
In plain words
- Overall strength: New England Patriots (#9 in the league) rates above Las Vegas Raiders (#25): +5.6 pts to New England Patriots.
- Home field: +1.7 pts to New England Patriots.
- Drake Maye is above New England Patriots' recent QB level: +0.8 pts to New England Patriots.
- Kirk Cousins is above Las Vegas Raiders' recent QB level: +3 pts to Las Vegas Raiders.
Context
Before this game: LV 3-1, NE 2-2 this season.
Starting quarterbacks: Kirk Cousins (LV), Drake Maye (NE).
This season · last 4 games
Las Vegas Raiders3-1
- 27-30 vs KC (loss)
- 35-27 at NO (win)
- 26-14 at LAC (win)
- 27-13 vs MIA (win)
New England Patriots2-2
- 29-26 at BUF (win)
- 6-35 at JAX (loss)
- 20-3 vs PIT (win)
- 10-13 at SEA (loss)