Neutral site: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England
PHIPhiladelphia EaglesQB Jalen Hurtsvs
JAXJacksonville JaguarsQB Trevor Lawrence
Record 2-2, last 4: win, win, loss, lossRecord 3-1, last 4: win, loss, win, win
Final: PHI 17, JAX 19. Our pick (JAX) won.
Matches the marketWe compare our expected margin with the market line. Less than 1.5 points apart: it matches the market. 1.5 to 3.5: slight difference. 3.5 or more: strong disagreement.
Who wins?
We gave the Jacksonville Jaguars a 69% chance to win. The market gave them 77%.
Chance to win · Nalytix NFL model vs. the market
| Team | Our model | MarketWorked out from what US sportsbooks pay for each team to win, with their built-in margin taken out. Shown only for comparison: Nalytix offers no betting services. | GapOur chance minus the market's, in percentage points. +5 means we give this team 5 points more than the market does. |
|---|---|---|---|
 PHIPhiladelphia Eagles | 31% | 23% | +8 |
 JAXJacksonville Jaguars | 69% | 77% | −8 |
Our modelThe market: the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse
By how much?
We expected the Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 6.3 points; the market said 7.5.
Expected margin in points · our model vs. the market
- Our expected marginHow many points we expect the favorite to win by, on average. Real games vary a lot around it: in our tests, the final margin missed it by about 10 points on average, and the market's line by almost as much.
- JAX by 6.3
- Market lineThe point spread posted by sportsbooks: the margin the betting market expects. Here, the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse. We show it to compare, not to beat it: over 1,977 games from 2019 to 2026, when our model and the line disagreed, the final margin landed on our model's side 50.2% of the time, no better than a coin flip.
- JAX by 7.5
How it could go
We expected the final margin to land between JAX by 24 and PHI by 10, 8 times out of 10.The middle 8 in 10 of how 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin. Tested season by season, each season estimated only from the others, the final margin landed inside this range 81.7% of the time.
- JAX wins
- PHI wins
- Our expected margin
- Market line
- Final margin
- 37%JAX by 9 or more
- 32%JAX by 1 to 8
- 20%PHI by 1 to 8
- 11%PHI by 9 or more
How 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin, kept in line with our chance to win above.
Every margin, as a table
| Wins by | JAX | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 2.8% | 2.4% |
| 3 | 7.7% | 5.8% |
| 4 | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| 5 | 1.9% | 1.2% |
| 6 | 4.4% | 3.3% |
| 7 | 5.4% | 3.2% |
| 8 | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| 9 | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| 10 | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| 11 | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| 12 | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| 13 | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 14 | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| 15 | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 16 | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 17 | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| 18 | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| 19 | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| 20 | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| 21 | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| 22 | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| 23 | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 24 | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| 25 | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 26 | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 27 | 0.8% | <0.1% |
| 28 or more | 6.5% | 0.3% |
Why?
The biggest factor is the gap in team strength: 4.8 points to JAX.
Points each factor adds to the marginEach factor is worth a number of points. Added up, they give our expected margin (last row). Team ratings move after every game, based on the score and the opponent.
- Team strengthJAX +4.8
- QB Trevor Lawrence (JAX)JAX +0.2
- QB Jalen Hurts (PHI)PHI +0.3
- Expected marginJAX by 6.3
In plain words
- Overall strength: Jacksonville Jaguars (#4 in the league) rates above Philadelphia Eagles (#14): +4.8 pts to Jacksonville Jaguars.
- Home field: +1.7 pts to Jacksonville Jaguars.
Context
Before this game: PHI 2-2, JAX 3-1 this season.
Starting quarterbacks: Jalen Hurts (PHI), Trevor Lawrence (JAX).
This season · last 4 games
Philadelphia Eagles2-2
- 20-24 vs LA (loss)
- 7-27 at CHI (loss)
- 24-20 at TEN (win)
- 24-22 vs WAS (win)
Jacksonville Jaguars3-1
- 22-17 at CIN (win)
- 35-6 vs NE (win)
- 13-20 at DEN (loss)
- 34-10 vs CLE (win)