Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
HOUHouston TexansQB C.J. Stroudat
TENTennessee TitansQB Cam Ward
Record 0-4, last 4: loss, loss, loss, lossRecord 0-4, last 4: loss, loss, loss, loss
Final: HOU 26, TEN 3. Our pick (HOU) won.
Matches the marketWe compare our expected margin with the market line. Less than 1.5 points apart: it matches the market. 1.5 to 3.5: slight difference. 3.5 or more: strong disagreement.
Who wins?
We gave the Houston Texans a 66% chance to win. The market gave them 74%.
Chance to win · Nalytix NFL model vs. the market
| Team | Our model | MarketWorked out from what US sportsbooks pay for each team to win, with their built-in margin taken out. Shown only for comparison: Nalytix offers no betting services. | GapOur chance minus the market's, in percentage points. +5 means we give this team 5 points more than the market does. |
|---|---|---|---|
 HOUHouston Texans | 66% | 74% | −8 |
 TENTennessee Titans | 34% | 26% | +8 |
Our modelThe market: the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse
By how much?
We expected the Houston Texans to win by 5.2 points; the market said 6.5.
Expected margin in points · our model vs. the market
- Our expected marginHow many points we expect the favorite to win by, on average. Real games vary a lot around it: in our tests, the final margin missed it by about 10 points on average, and the market's line by almost as much.
- HOU by 5.2
- Market lineThe point spread posted by sportsbooks: the margin the betting market expects. Here, the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse. We show it to compare, not to beat it: over 1,977 games from 2019 to 2026, when our model and the line disagreed, the final margin landed on our model's side 50.2% of the time, no better than a coin flip.
- HOU by 6.5
How it could go
We expected the final margin to land between HOU by 23 and TEN by 10, 8 times out of 10.The middle 8 in 10 of how 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin. Tested season by season, each season estimated only from the others, the final margin landed inside this range 81.7% of the time.
- HOU wins
- TEN wins
- Our expected margin
- Market line
- Final margin
- 34%HOU by 9 or more
- 32%HOU by 1 to 8
- 22%TEN by 1 to 8
- 12%TEN by 9 or more
How 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin, kept in line with our chance to win above.
Every margin, as a table
| Wins by | HOU | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 3 | 8.3% | 6.8% |
| 4 | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| 5 | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| 6 | 4.3% | 3.6% |
| 7 | 5.4% | 3.3% |
| 8 | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| 9 | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| 10 | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| 11 | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| 12 | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| 13 | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| 14 | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| 15 | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 16 | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| 17 | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| 18 | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| 19 | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 20 | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| 21 | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| 22 | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 23 | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| 24 | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| 25 | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 26 | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| 27 | 0.8% | <0.1% |
| 28 or more | 5.7% | 0.5% |
Why?
The biggest factor is the gap in team strength: 6.2 points to HOU.
Points each factor adds to the marginEach factor is worth a number of points. Added up, they give our expected margin (last row). Team ratings move after every game, based on the score and the opponent.
- Team strengthHOU +6.2
- Home fieldTEN +1.7
- QB Cam Ward (TEN)HOU +0.5
- QB C.J. Stroud (HOU)HOU +0.2
- Expected marginHOU by 5.2
In plain words
- Overall strength: Houston Texans (#19 in the league) rates above Tennessee Titans (#32): +6.2 pts to Houston Texans.
- Home field: +1.7 pts to Tennessee Titans.
Context
Before this game: HOU 0-4, TEN 0-4 this season.
Starting quarterbacks: C.J. Stroud (HOU), Cam Ward (TEN).
This season · last 4 games
Houston Texans0-4
- 30-34 vs DAL (loss)
- 17-19 at IND (loss)
- 6-20 vs CIN (loss)
- 31-36 vs BUF (loss)
Tennessee Titans0-4
- 18-24 at BAL (loss)
- 7-12 at NYG (loss)
- 20-24 vs PHI (loss)
- 10-23 vs NYJ (loss)