State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
DETDetroit LionsQB Jared Goffat
ARIArizona CardinalsQB Jacoby Brissett
Record 2-2, last 4: win, loss, win, lossRecord 1-3, last 4: win, loss, loss, loss
Final: DET 45, ARI 21. Our pick (DET) won.
Slight differenceWe compare our expected margin with the market line. Less than 1.5 points apart: it matches the market. 1.5 to 3.5: slight difference. 3.5 or more: strong disagreement.
Who wins?
We gave the Detroit Lions a 62% chance to win. The market gave them 68%.
Chance to win · Nalytix NFL model vs. the market
| Team | Our model | MarketWorked out from what US sportsbooks pay for each team to win, with their built-in margin taken out. Shown only for comparison: Nalytix offers no betting services. | GapOur chance minus the market's, in percentage points. +5 means we give this team 5 points more than the market does. |
|---|---|---|---|
 DETDetroit Lions | 62% | 68% | −6 |
 ARIArizona Cardinals | 38% | 32% | +6 |
Our modelThe market: the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse
By how much?
We expected the Detroit Lions to win by 3.9 points; the market said 5.5.
Expected margin in points · our model vs. the market
- Our expected marginHow many points we expect the favorite to win by, on average. Real games vary a lot around it: in our tests, the final margin missed it by about 10 points on average, and the market's line by almost as much.
- DET by 3.9
- Market lineThe point spread posted by sportsbooks: the margin the betting market expects. Here, the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse. We show it to compare, not to beat it: over 1,977 games from 2019 to 2026, when our model and the line disagreed, the final margin landed on our model's side 50.2% of the time, no better than a coin flip.
- DET by 5.5
How it could go
We expected the final margin to land between DET by 22 and ARI by 12, 8 times out of 10.The middle 8 in 10 of how 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin. Tested season by season, each season estimated only from the others, the final margin landed inside this range 81.7% of the time.
- DET wins
- ARI wins
- Our expected margin
- Market line
- Final margin
- 30%DET by 9 or more
- 32%DET by 1 to 8
- 24%ARI by 1 to 8
- 14%ARI by 9 or more
How 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin, kept in line with our chance to win above.
Every margin, as a table
| Wins by | DET | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| 2 | 2.2% | 2.3% |
| 3 | 8.7% | 7.4% |
| 4 | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| 5 | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| 6 | 4.0% | 3.6% |
| 7 | 5.4% | 3.2% |
| 8 | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| 9 | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 10 | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| 11 | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| 12 | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| 13 | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| 14 | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| 15 | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 16 | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 17 | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| 18 | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| 19 | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| 20 | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 21 | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 22 | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 23 | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 24 | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| 25 | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| 27 | 0.6% | <0.1% |
| 28 or more | 4.6% | 0.9% |
Why?
The biggest factor is the gap in team strength: 3.6 points to DET.
Points each factor adds to the marginEach factor is worth a number of points. Added up, they give our expected margin (last row). Team ratings move after every game, based on the score and the opponent.
- Team strengthDET +3.6
- Home fieldARI +1.7
- QB Jacoby Brissett (ARI)DET +1.9
- QB Jared Goff (DET)DET +0.1
- Expected marginDET by 3.9
In plain words
- Overall strength: Detroit Lions (#12 in the league) rates above Arizona Cardinals (#28): +3.6 pts to Detroit Lions.
- Home field: +1.7 pts to Arizona Cardinals.
- Jacoby Brissett is below Arizona Cardinals' usual QB level: −1.9 pts to Arizona Cardinals.
Context
Before this game: DET 2-2, ARI 1-3 this season.
Starting quarterbacks: Jared Goff (DET), Jacoby Brissett (ARI).
This season · last 4 games
Detroit Lions2-2
- 26-32 at CAR (loss)
- 31-24 vs NYJ (win)
- 31-41 at BUF (loss)
- 31-30 vs NO (win)
Arizona Cardinals1-3
- 24-36 at NYG (loss)
- 30-36 at SF (loss)
- 7-31 vs SEA (loss)
- 26-14 at LAC (win)