MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
CLECleveland BrownsQB Deshaun Watsonat
NYJNew York JetsQB Geno Smith
Record 3-1, last 4: loss, win, win, winRecord 1-3, last 4: win, loss, loss, loss
Final: CLE 12, NYJ 17. Our pick (CLE) lost.
Strong disagreementWe compare our expected margin with the market line. Less than 1.5 points apart: it matches the market. 1.5 to 3.5: slight difference. 3.5 or more: strong disagreement.
Who wins?
We gave the Cleveland Browns a 64% chance to win. The market favored the New York Jets (55%).
Chance to win · Nalytix NFL model vs. the market
| Team | Our model | MarketWorked out from what US sportsbooks pay for each team to win, with their built-in margin taken out. Shown only for comparison: Nalytix offers no betting services. | GapOur chance minus the market's, in percentage points. +5 means we give this team 5 points more than the market does. |
|---|---|---|---|
 CLECleveland Browns | 64% | 45% | +19 |
 NYJNew York Jets | 36% | 55% | −19 |
Our modelThe market: the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse
By how much?
We expected the Cleveland Browns to win by 4.4 points; the market favored the New York Jets by 2.5 points.
Expected margin in points · our model vs. the market
- Our expected marginHow many points we expect the favorite to win by, on average. Real games vary a lot around it: in our tests, the final margin missed it by about 10 points on average, and the market's line by almost as much.
- CLE by 4.4
- Market lineThe point spread posted by sportsbooks: the margin the betting market expects. Here, the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse. We show it to compare, not to beat it: over 1,977 games from 2019 to 2026, when our model and the line disagreed, the final margin landed on our model's side 50.2% of the time, no better than a coin flip.
- NYJ by 2.5
How it could go
We expected the final margin to land between CLE by 22 and NYJ by 11, 8 times out of 10.The middle 8 in 10 of how 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin. Tested season by season, each season estimated only from the others, the final margin landed inside this range 81.7% of the time.
- CLE wins
- NYJ wins
- Our expected margin
- Market line
- Final margin
- 32%CLE by 9 or more
- 32%CLE by 1 to 8
- 23%NYJ by 1 to 8
- 13%NYJ by 9 or more
How 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin, kept in line with our chance to win above.
Every margin, as a table
| Wins by | CLE | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| 2 | 2.2% | 2.3% |
| 3 | 8.5% | 7.3% |
| 4 | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| 5 | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| 6 | 4.2% | 3.7% |
| 7 | 5.4% | 3.2% |
| 8 | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| 9 | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 10 | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| 11 | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| 12 | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| 13 | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| 14 | 2.6% | 1.8% |
| 15 | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 16 | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 17 | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| 18 | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 19 | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| 20 | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 21 | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 22 | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 23 | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| 24 | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| 25 | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| 27 | 0.7% | <0.1% |
| 28 or more | 5.0% | 0.7% |
Why?
The biggest factor is the gap in team strength: 3.8 points to CLE.
Points each factor adds to the marginEach factor is worth a number of points. Added up, they give our expected margin (last row). Team ratings move after every game, based on the score and the opponent.
- Team strengthCLE +3.8
- Home fieldNYJ +1.7
- QB Geno Smith (NYJ)NYJ +0.8
- QB Deshaun Watson (CLE)CLE +3.1
- Expected marginCLE by 4.4
In plain words
- Overall strength: Cleveland Browns (#23 in the league) rates above New York Jets (#31): +3.8 pts to Cleveland Browns.
- Home field: +1.7 pts to New York Jets.
- Geno Smith is above New York Jets' recent QB level: +0.8 pts to New York Jets.
- Deshaun Watson is above Cleveland Browns' recent QB level: +3.1 pts to Cleveland Browns.
- Caution: Deshaun Watson's rating rests on few recent games (4 starts in 2 seasons).
- The market also prices in what the model doesn't see yet: non-QB injuries, defensive quality, this week's news.
Context
Before this game: CLE 3-1, NYJ 1-3 this season.
Starting quarterbacks: Deshaun Watson (CLE), Geno Smith (NYJ).
This season · last 4 games
Cleveland Browns3-1
- 27-24 vs PIT (win)
- 21-18 vs CAR (win)
- 23-19 at TB (win)
- 10-34 at JAX (loss)
New York Jets1-3
- 12-23 at CHI (loss)
- 24-31 at DET (loss)
- 17-20 vs GB (loss)
- 23-10 at TEN (win)