Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
CHIChicago BearsQB Tyson Bagentat
GBGreen Bay PackersQB Jordan Love
Record 3-1, last 4: win, loss, win, winRecord 2-2, last 4: loss, win, loss, win
Final: CHI 7, GB 31. Our pick (CHI) lost.
Matches the marketWe compare our expected margin with the market line. Less than 1.5 points apart: it matches the market. 1.5 to 3.5: slight difference. 3.5 or more: strong disagreement.
Who wins?
We gave the Chicago Bears a 52% chance to win. The market gave them 53%.
Chance to win · Nalytix NFL model vs. the market
| Team | Our model | MarketWorked out from what US sportsbooks pay for each team to win, with their built-in margin taken out. Shown only for comparison: Nalytix offers no betting services. | GapOur chance minus the market's, in percentage points. +5 means we give this team 5 points more than the market does. |
|---|---|---|---|
 CHIChicago Bears | 52% | 53% | −1 |
 GBGreen Bay Packers | 48% | 47% | +1 |
Our modelThe market: the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse
By how much?
We expected the Chicago Bears to win by 0.6 points; the market said 1.5.
Expected margin in points · our model vs. the market
- Our expected marginHow many points we expect the favorite to win by, on average. Real games vary a lot around it: in our tests, the final margin missed it by about 10 points on average, and the market's line by almost as much.
- CHI by 0.6
- Market lineThe point spread posted by sportsbooks: the margin the betting market expects. Here, the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse. We show it to compare, not to beat it: over 1,977 games from 2019 to 2026, when our model and the line disagreed, the final margin landed on our model's side 50.2% of the time, no better than a coin flip.
- CHI by 1.5
How it could go
We expected the final margin to land between CHI by 17 and GB by 17, 8 times out of 10.The middle 8 in 10 of how 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin. Tested season by season, each season estimated only from the others, the final margin landed inside this range 81.7% of the time.
- CHI wins
- GB wins
- Our expected margin
- Market line
- Final margin
- 22%CHI by 9 or more
- 30%CHI by 1 to 8
- 28%GB by 1 to 8
- 20%GB by 9 or more
How 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin, kept in line with our chance to win above.
Every margin, as a table
| Wins by | CHI | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| 2 | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| 3 | 8.1% | 7.6% |
| 4 | 3.0% | 3.2% |
| 5 | 3.0% | 2.8% |
| 6 | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| 7 | 4.7% | 4.2% |
| 8 | 2.4% | 2.3% |
| 9 | 0.8% | 1.0% |
| 10 | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| 11 | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| 12 | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| 13 | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| 14 | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| 15 | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| 16 | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| 17 | 2.3% | 2.0% |
| 18 | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| 19 | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 20 | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 21 | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| 22 | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 23 | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| 24 | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 25 | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 28 or more | 2.6% | 2.1% |
Why?
The biggest factor is the gap in team strength: 4.2 points to CHI.
Points each factor adds to the marginEach factor is worth a number of points. Added up, they give our expected margin (last row). Team ratings move after every game, based on the score and the opponent.
- Team strengthCHI +4.2
- Home fieldGB +1.7
- QB Jordan Love (GB)CHI +0.4
- QB Tyson Bagent (CHI)GB +2.3
- Expected marginCHI by 0.6
In plain words
- Overall strength: Chicago Bears (#6 in the league) rates above Green Bay Packers (#18): +4.2 pts to Chicago Bears.
- Home field: +1.7 pts to Green Bay Packers.
- Tyson Bagent is below Chicago Bears' usual QB level: −2.3 pts to Chicago Bears.
- Caution: Tyson Bagent's rating rests on few recent games (0 start in 2 seasons).
Context
Before this game: CHI 3-1, GB 2-2 this season.
Starting quarterbacks: Tyson Bagent (CHI), Jordan Love (GB).
This season · last 4 games
Chicago Bears3-1
- 23-12 vs NYJ (win)
- 27-7 vs PHI (win)
- 3-9 vs MIN (loss)
- 59-37 at CAR (win)
Green Bay Packers2-2
- 17-14 at TB (win)
- 14-35 vs ATL (loss)
- 20-17 at NYJ (win)
- 22-39 at MIN (loss)