Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
BALBaltimore RavensQB Tyler Huntleyat
ATLAtlanta FalconsQB Michael Penix Jr.
Record 3-1, last 4: win, loss, win, winRecord 2-2, last 4: loss, loss, win, win
Final: BAL 30, ATL 23. Our pick (ATL) lost.
Matches the marketWe compare our expected margin with the market line. Less than 1.5 points apart: it matches the market. 1.5 to 3.5: slight difference. 3.5 or more: strong disagreement.
Who wins?
We gave the Atlanta Falcons a 62% chance to win. The market gave them 61%.
Chance to win · Nalytix NFL model vs. the market
| Team | Our model | MarketWorked out from what US sportsbooks pay for each team to win, with their built-in margin taken out. Shown only for comparison: Nalytix offers no betting services. | GapOur chance minus the market's, in percentage points. +5 means we give this team 5 points more than the market does. |
|---|---|---|---|
 BALBaltimore Ravens | 38% | 39% | −1 |
 ATLAtlanta Falcons | 62% | 61% | +1 |
Our modelThe market: the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse
By how much?
We expected the Atlanta Falcons to win by 3.6 points; the market said 3.
Expected margin in points · our model vs. the market
- Our expected marginHow many points we expect the favorite to win by, on average. Real games vary a lot around it: in our tests, the final margin missed it by about 10 points on average, and the market's line by almost as much.
- ATL by 3.6
- Market lineThe point spread posted by sportsbooks: the margin the betting market expects. Here, the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse. We show it to compare, not to beat it: over 1,977 games from 2019 to 2026, when our model and the line disagreed, the final margin landed on our model's side 50.2% of the time, no better than a coin flip.
- ATL by 3
How it could go
We expected the final margin to land between ATL by 21 and BAL by 13, 8 times out of 10.The middle 8 in 10 of how 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin. Tested season by season, each season estimated only from the others, the final margin landed inside this range 81.7% of the time.
- ATL wins
- BAL wins
- Our expected margin
- Market line
- Final margin
- 30%ATL by 9 or more
- 32%ATL by 1 to 8
- 24%BAL by 1 to 8
- 14%BAL by 9 or more
How 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin, kept in line with our chance to win above.
Every margin, as a table
| Wins by | ATL | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.1% | 2.0% |
| 2 | 2.2% | 2.3% |
| 3 | 8.8% | 7.5% |
| 4 | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| 5 | 2.6% | 1.8% |
| 6 | 3.9% | 3.6% |
| 7 | 5.4% | 3.2% |
| 8 | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| 9 | 0.7% | 0.9% |
| 10 | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| 11 | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| 12 | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| 13 | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| 14 | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| 15 | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 16 | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 17 | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| 18 | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| 19 | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| 20 | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 21 | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 22 | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 23 | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 24 | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| 25 | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| 27 | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 28 or more | 4.3% | 1.0% |
Why?
The biggest factor is Tyler Huntley at quarterback for BAL: 4.1 points to ATL.
Points each factor adds to the marginEach factor is worth a number of points. Added up, they give our expected margin (last row). Team ratings move after every game, based on the score and the opponent.
- Team strengthBAL +2.3
- Home fieldATL +1.7
- QB Michael Penix Jr. (ATL)ATL +0.2
- QB Tyler Huntley (BAL)ATL +4.1
- Expected marginATL by 3.6
In plain words
- Overall strength: Baltimore Ravens (#11 in the league) rates above Atlanta Falcons (#18): +2.3 pts to Baltimore Ravens.
- Home field: +1.7 pts to Atlanta Falcons.
- Tyler Huntley is below Baltimore Ravens' usual QB level: −4.1 pts to Baltimore Ravens.
- Caution: Tyler Huntley's rating rests on few recent games (2 starts in 2 seasons).
Context
Before this game: BAL 3-1, ATL 2-2 this season.
Starting quarterbacks: Tyler Huntley (BAL), Michael Penix Jr. (ATL).
This season · last 4 games
Baltimore Ravens3-1
- 24-18 vs TEN (win)
- 34-31 at DAL (win)
- 17-24 vs NO (loss)
- 41-23 at IND (win)
Atlanta Falcons2-2
- 45-24 at NO (win)
- 35-14 at GB (win)
- 3-34 vs CAR (loss)
- 13-20 at PIT (loss)