Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
MINMinnesota VikingsQB Kyler Murrayat
NONew Orleans SaintsQB Tyler Shough
Record 4-0, last 4: win, win, win, winRecord 1-3, last 4: loss, win, loss, loss
Final: MIN 23, NO 13. Our pick (MIN) won.
Strong disagreementWe compare our expected margin with the market line. Less than 1.5 points apart: it matches the market. 1.5 to 3.5: slight difference. 3.5 or more: strong disagreement.
Who wins?
We gave the Minnesota Vikings a 77% chance to win. The market gave them 55%.
Chance to win · Nalytix NFL model vs. the market
| Team | Our model | MarketWorked out from what US sportsbooks pay for each team to win, with their built-in margin taken out. Shown only for comparison: Nalytix offers no betting services. | GapOur chance minus the market's, in percentage points. +5 means we give this team 5 points more than the market does. |
|---|---|---|---|
 MINMinnesota Vikings | 77% | 55% | +22 |
 NONew Orleans Saints | 23% | 45% | −22 |
Our modelThe market: the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse
By how much?
We expected the Minnesota Vikings to win by 9.4 points; the market said 1.5.
Expected margin in points · our model vs. the market
- Our expected marginHow many points we expect the favorite to win by, on average. Real games vary a lot around it: in our tests, the final margin missed it by about 10 points on average, and the market's line by almost as much.
- MIN by 9.4
- Market lineThe point spread posted by sportsbooks: the margin the betting market expects. Here, the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse. We show it to compare, not to beat it: over 1,977 games from 2019 to 2026, when our model and the line disagreed, the final margin landed on our model's side 50.2% of the time, no better than a coin flip.
- MIN by 1.5
How it could go
We expected the final margin to land between MIN by 27 and NO by 7, 8 times out of 10.The middle 8 in 10 of how 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin. Tested season by season, each season estimated only from the others, the final margin landed inside this range 81.7% of the time.
- MIN wins
- NO wins
- Our expected margin
- Market line
- Final margin
- 47%MIN by 9 or more
- 30%MIN by 1 to 8
- 15%NO by 1 to 8
- 8%NO by 9 or more
How 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin, kept in line with our chance to win above.
Every margin, as a table
| Wins by | MIN | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| 2 | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 5.8% | 5.0% |
| 4 | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| 5 | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| 6 | 5.5% | 2.4% |
| 7 | 6.0% | 2.0% |
| 8 | 3.9% | 0.9% |
| 9 | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 10 | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| 11 | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 12 | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| 13 | 2.2% | <0.1% |
| 14 | 5.7% | 1.4% |
| 15 | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| 16 | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 17 | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 18 | 3.8% | 0.7% |
| 19 | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| 20 | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| 21 | 2.1% | <0.1% |
| 22 | 2.0% | <0.1% |
| 23 | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| 24 | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| 25 | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| 26 | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| 27 | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| 28 or more | 9.9% | <0.1% |
Why?
The biggest factor is the gap in team strength: 7.6 points to MIN.
Points each factor adds to the marginEach factor is worth a number of points. Added up, they give our expected margin (last row). Team ratings move after every game, based on the score and the opponent.
- Team strengthMIN +7.6
- Home fieldNO +1.7
- QB Tyler Shough (NO)NO +0.2
- QB Kyler Murray (MIN)MIN +3.6
- Expected marginMIN by 9.4
In plain words
- Overall strength: Minnesota Vikings (#3 in the league) rates above New Orleans Saints (#24): +7.6 pts to Minnesota Vikings.
- Home field: +1.7 pts to New Orleans Saints.
- Kyler Murray is above Minnesota Vikings' recent QB level: +3.6 pts to Minnesota Vikings.
- The market also prices in what the model doesn't see yet: non-QB injuries, defensive quality, this week's news.
Context
Before this game: MIN 4-0, NO 1-3 this season.
Starting quarterbacks: Kyler Murray (MIN), Tyler Shough (NO).
This season · last 4 games
Minnesota Vikings4-0
- 15-10 vs MIA (win)
- 23-16 at TB (win)
- 9-3 at CHI (win)
- 39-22 vs GB (win)
New Orleans Saints1-3
- 24-45 vs ATL (loss)
- 27-35 vs LV (loss)
- 24-17 at BAL (win)
- 30-31 at DET (loss)