Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
INDIndianapolis ColtsQB Daniel Jonesat
PITPittsburgh SteelersQB Aaron Rodgers
Record 2-2, last 4: loss, loss, win, winRecord 2-2, last 4: win, loss, win, loss
Final: IND 22, PIT 34. Our pick (PIT) won.
Matches the marketWe compare our expected margin with the market line. Less than 1.5 points apart: it matches the market. 1.5 to 3.5: slight difference. 3.5 or more: strong disagreement.
Who wins?
We gave the Pittsburgh Steelers a 60% chance to win. The market gave them 58%.
Chance to win · Nalytix NFL model vs. the market
| Team | Our model | MarketWorked out from what US sportsbooks pay for each team to win, with their built-in margin taken out. Shown only for comparison: Nalytix offers no betting services. | GapOur chance minus the market's, in percentage points. +5 means we give this team 5 points more than the market does. |
|---|---|---|---|
 INDIndianapolis Colts | 40% | 42% | −2 |
 PITPittsburgh Steelers | 60% | 58% | +2 |
Our modelThe market: the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse
By how much?
We expected the Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 3 points; the market said 3.
Expected margin in points · our model vs. the market
- Our expected marginHow many points we expect the favorite to win by, on average. Real games vary a lot around it: in our tests, the final margin missed it by about 10 points on average, and the market's line by almost as much.
- PIT by 3
- Market lineThe point spread posted by sportsbooks: the margin the betting market expects. Here, the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse. We show it to compare, not to beat it: over 1,977 games from 2019 to 2026, when our model and the line disagreed, the final margin landed on our model's side 50.2% of the time, no better than a coin flip.
- PIT by 3
How it could go
We expected the final margin to land between PIT by 21 and IND by 14, 8 times out of 10.The middle 8 in 10 of how 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin. Tested season by season, each season estimated only from the others, the final margin landed inside this range 81.7% of the time.
- PIT wins
- IND wins
- Our expected margin
- Market line
- Final margin
- 28%PIT by 9 or more
- 32%PIT by 1 to 8
- 25%IND by 1 to 8
- 15%IND by 9 or more
How 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin, kept in line with our chance to win above.
Every margin, as a table
| Wins by | PIT | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.0% | 2.1% |
| 2 | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 3 | 8.9% | 7.5% |
| 4 | 2.9% | 2.3% |
| 5 | 2.8% | 2.0% |
| 6 | 3.6% | 3.4% |
| 7 | 5.4% | 3.3% |
| 8 | 3.1% | 2.0% |
| 9 | 0.7% | 1.0% |
| 10 | 3.1% | 2.2% |
| 11 | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| 12 | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| 13 | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| 14 | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| 15 | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 16 | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| 17 | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| 18 | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| 19 | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 20 | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| 21 | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| 22 | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 23 | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 24 | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| 25 | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 27 | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 28 or more | 3.8% | 1.1% |
Why?
The biggest factor is home field: 1.7 points to PIT.
Points each factor adds to the marginEach factor is worth a number of points. Added up, they give our expected margin (last row). Team ratings move after every game, based on the score and the opponent.
- Team strengthPIT +0.7
- Home fieldPIT +1.7
- QB Aaron Rodgers (PIT)PIT +0.9
- QB Daniel Jones (IND)IND +0.2
- Expected marginPIT by 3
In plain words
- Overall strength: Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts are close (#17 and #21 in the league).
- Home field: +1.7 pts to Pittsburgh Steelers.
- Aaron Rodgers is above Pittsburgh Steelers' recent QB level: +0.9 pts to Pittsburgh Steelers.
Context
Before this game: IND 2-2, PIT 2-2 this season.
Starting quarterbacks: Daniel Jones (IND), Aaron Rodgers (PIT).
This season · last 4 games
Indianapolis Colts2-2
- 30-13 at WAS (win)
- 19-17 vs HOU (win)
- 30-33 at KC (loss)
- 23-41 vs BAL (loss)
Pittsburgh Steelers2-2
- 24-27 at CLE (loss)
- 30-27 vs CIN (win)
- 3-20 at NE (loss)
- 20-13 vs ATL (win)