Week 5 2026 NFL season

14 games, every analysis ready. Free analysis: BUF at LA.

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Blue line: our model's expected marginYellow line: the market's point spread

Your teams

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Sunday, Oct 11

Your teamFinalMatches the market

PHIPhiladelphia EaglesQB Jalen HurtsvsJAXJacksonville JaguarsQB Trevor Lawrence

Record 2-2, last 4: win, win, loss, lossRecord 3-1, last 4: win, loss, win, win

Final: PHI 17, JAX 19. Model pick won.

Our model and the market
	Our model	MarketThe point spread and win chances of US sportsbooks: what the betting market expects. We show them only to compare with our model. Nalytix offers no betting services.
Expected margin	JAX by 6.3	JAX by 7.5
Win chance	JAX 69%	JAX 77%

Why the model sees it this way

Overall strength: Jacksonville Jaguars (#4 in the league) rates above Philadelphia Eagles (#14): +4.8 pts to Jacksonville Jaguars.
Home field: +1.7 pts to Jacksonville Jaguars.

Full analysis

Your teamFinalStrong disagreement

CLECleveland BrownsQB Deshaun WatsonatNYJNew York JetsQB Geno Smith

Record 3-1, last 4: loss, win, win, winRecord 1-3, last 4: win, loss, loss, loss

Final: CLE 12, NYJ 17. Model pick lost.

Our model and the market
	Our model	MarketThe point spread and win chances of US sportsbooks: what the betting market expects. We show them only to compare with our model. Nalytix offers no betting services.
Expected margin	CLE by 4.4	NYJ by 2.5
Win chance	CLE 64%	NYJ 55%

Why the model sees it this way

Overall strength: Cleveland Browns (#23 in the league) rates above New York Jets (#31): +3.8 pts to Cleveland Browns.
Home field: +1.7 pts to New York Jets.
Geno Smith is above New York Jets' recent QB level: +0.8 pts to New York Jets.
Deshaun Watson is above Cleveland Browns' recent QB level: +3.1 pts to Cleveland Browns.
Caution: Deshaun Watson's rating rests on few recent games (4 starts in 2 seasons).
The market also prices in what the model doesn't see yet: non-QB injuries, defensive quality, this week's news.

Full analysis

Your teamFinalMatches the market

HOUHouston TexansQB C.J. StroudatTENTennessee TitansQB Cam Ward

Record 0-4, last 4: loss, loss, loss, lossRecord 0-4, last 4: loss, loss, loss, loss

Final: HOU 26, TEN 3. Model pick won.

Our model and the market
	Our model	MarketThe point spread and win chances of US sportsbooks: what the betting market expects. We show them only to compare with our model. Nalytix offers no betting services.
Expected margin	HOU by 5.2	HOU by 6.5
Win chance	HOU 66%	HOU 74%

Why the model sees it this way

Overall strength: Houston Texans (#19 in the league) rates above Tennessee Titans (#32): +6.2 pts to Houston Texans.
Home field: +1.7 pts to Tennessee Titans.

Full analysis

Your teamFinalMatches the market

INDIndianapolis ColtsQB Daniel JonesatPITPittsburgh SteelersQB Aaron Rodgers

Record 2-2, last 4: loss, loss, win, winRecord 2-2, last 4: win, loss, win, loss

Final: IND 22, PIT 34. Model pick won.

Our model and the market
	Our model	MarketThe point spread and win chances of US sportsbooks: what the betting market expects. We show them only to compare with our model. Nalytix offers no betting services.
Expected margin	PIT by 3	PIT by 3
Win chance	PIT 60%	PIT 58%

Why the model sees it this way

Overall strength: Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts are close (#17 and #21 in the league).
Home field: +1.7 pts to Pittsburgh Steelers.
Aaron Rodgers is above Pittsburgh Steelers' recent QB level: +0.9 pts to Pittsburgh Steelers.

Full analysis

Your teamFinalSlight difference

LVLas Vegas RaidersQB Kirk CousinsatNENew England PatriotsQB Drake Maye

Record 3-1, last 4: win, win, win, lossRecord 2-2, last 4: loss, win, loss, win

Final: LV 17, NE 45. Model pick won.

Our model and the market
	Our model	MarketThe point spread and win chances of US sportsbooks: what the betting market expects. We show them only to compare with our model. Nalytix offers no betting services.
Expected margin	NE by 5.2	NE by 3.5
Win chance	NE 66%	NE 62%

Why the model sees it this way

Overall strength: New England Patriots (#9 in the league) rates above Las Vegas Raiders (#25): +5.6 pts to New England Patriots.
Home field: +1.7 pts to New England Patriots.
Drake Maye is above New England Patriots' recent QB level: +0.8 pts to New England Patriots.
Kirk Cousins is above Las Vegas Raiders' recent QB level: +3 pts to Las Vegas Raiders.

Full analysis

Your teamFinalMatches the market

CHIChicago BearsQB Tyson BagentatGBGreen Bay PackersQB Jordan Love

Record 3-1, last 4: win, loss, win, winRecord 2-2, last 4: loss, win, loss, win

Final: CHI 7, GB 31. Model pick lost.

Our model and the market
	Our model	MarketThe point spread and win chances of US sportsbooks: what the betting market expects. We show them only to compare with our model. Nalytix offers no betting services.
Expected margin	CHI by 0.6	CHI by 1.5
Win chance	CHI 52%	CHI 53%

Why the model sees it this way

Overall strength: Chicago Bears (#6 in the league) rates above Green Bay Packers (#18): +4.2 pts to Chicago Bears.
Home field: +1.7 pts to Green Bay Packers.
Tyson Bagent is below Chicago Bears' usual QB level: −2.3 pts to Chicago Bears.
Caution: Tyson Bagent's rating rests on few recent games (0 start in 2 seasons).

Full analysis

Your teamFinalSlight difference

CINCincinnati BengalsQB Joe BurrowatMIAMiami DolphinsQB Malik Willis

Record 2-2, last 4: win, win, loss, lossRecord 0-4, last 4: loss, loss, loss, loss

Final: CIN 31, MIA 24. Model pick won.

Our model and the market
	Our model	MarketThe point spread and win chances of US sportsbooks: what the betting market expects. We show them only to compare with our model. Nalytix offers no betting services.
Expected margin	CIN by 4.1	CIN by 7
Win chance	CIN 63%	CIN 74%

Why the model sees it this way

Overall strength: Cincinnati Bengals (#13 in the league) rates above Miami Dolphins (#29): +4 pts to Cincinnati Bengals.
Home field: +1.7 pts to Miami Dolphins.
Malik Willis is below Miami Dolphins' usual QB level: −1.3 pts to Miami Dolphins.
Caution: Malik Willis's rating rests on few recent games (5 starts in 2 seasons).

Full analysis

Your teamFinalStrong disagreement

MINMinnesota VikingsQB Kyler MurrayatNONew Orleans SaintsQB Tyler Shough

Record 4-0, last 4: win, win, win, winRecord 1-3, last 4: loss, win, loss, loss

Final: MIN 23, NO 13. Model pick won.

Our model and the market
	Our model	MarketThe point spread and win chances of US sportsbooks: what the betting market expects. We show them only to compare with our model. Nalytix offers no betting services.
Expected margin	MIN by 9.4	MIN by 1.5
Win chance	MIN 77%	MIN 55%

Why the model sees it this way

Overall strength: Minnesota Vikings (#3 in the league) rates above New Orleans Saints (#24): +7.6 pts to Minnesota Vikings.
Home field: +1.7 pts to New Orleans Saints.
Kyler Murray is above Minnesota Vikings' recent QB level: +3.6 pts to Minnesota Vikings.
The market also prices in what the model doesn't see yet: non-QB injuries, defensive quality, this week's news.

Full analysis

Your teamFinalSlight difference

NYGNew York GiantsQB Jameis WinstonatWASWashington CommandersQB Jayden Daniels

Record 3-1, last 4: win, loss, win, winRecord 1-3, last 4: loss, loss, win, loss

Final: NYG 27, WAS 27. Tie.

Our model and the market
	Our model	MarketThe point spread and win chances of US sportsbooks: what the betting market expects. We show them only to compare with our model. Nalytix offers no betting services.
Expected margin	WAS by 1.4	WAS by 3.5
Win chance	WAS 54%	WAS 63%

Why the model sees it this way

Overall strength: New York Giants (#22 in the league) rates above Washington Commanders (#30): +2.2 pts to New York Giants.
Home field: +1.7 pts to Washington Commanders.
Jayden Daniels is above Washington Commanders' recent QB level: +2.2 pts to Washington Commanders.
Caution: Jameis Winston's rating rests on few recent games (4 starts in 2 seasons).

Full analysis

Your teamFinalMatches the market

DENDenver BroncosQB Bo NixatLACLos Angeles ChargersQB Justin Herbert

Record 2-2, last 4: loss, win, win, lossRecord 0-4, last 4: loss, loss, loss, loss

Final: DEN 23, LAC 17. Model pick won.

Our model and the market
	Our model	MarketThe point spread and win chances of US sportsbooks: what the betting market expects. We show them only to compare with our model. Nalytix offers no betting services.
Expected margin	DEN by 4.2	DEN by 3.5
Win chance	DEN 63%	DEN 63%

Why the model sees it this way

Overall strength: Denver Broncos (#10 in the league) rates above Los Angeles Chargers (#27): +5.4 pts to Denver Broncos.
Home field: +1.7 pts to Los Angeles Chargers.
Bo Nix is above Denver Broncos' recent QB level: +0.8 pts to Denver Broncos.

Full analysis

Your teamFinalMatches the market

SFSan Francisco 49ersQB Brock PurdyatSEASeattle SeahawksQB Drew Lock

Record 4-0, last 4: win, win, win, winRecord 3-1, last 4: win, win, loss, win

Final: SF 32, SEA 29. Model pick lost.

Our model and the market
	Our model	MarketThe point spread and win chances of US sportsbooks: what the betting market expects. We show them only to compare with our model. Nalytix offers no betting services.
Expected margin	SEA by 2.4	SEA by 3
Win chance	SEA 58%	SEA 60%

Why the model sees it this way

Overall strength: Seattle Seahawks (#1 in the league) rates above San Francisco 49ers (#2): +2.4 pts to Seattle Seahawks.
Home field: +1.7 pts to Seattle Seahawks.
Drew Lock is below Seattle Seahawks' usual QB level: −1.5 pts to Seattle Seahawks.
Caution: Drew Lock's rating rests on few recent games (3 starts in 2 seasons).

Full analysis

Your teamFinalSlight difference

DETDetroit LionsQB Jared GoffatARIArizona CardinalsQB Jacoby Brissett

Record 2-2, last 4: win, loss, win, lossRecord 1-3, last 4: win, loss, loss, loss

Final: DET 45, ARI 21. Model pick won.

Our model and the market
	Our model	MarketThe point spread and win chances of US sportsbooks: what the betting market expects. We show them only to compare with our model. Nalytix offers no betting services.
Expected margin	DET by 3.9	DET by 5.5
Win chance	DET 62%	DET 68%

Why the model sees it this way

Overall strength: Detroit Lions (#12 in the league) rates above Arizona Cardinals (#28): +3.6 pts to Detroit Lions.
Home field: +1.7 pts to Arizona Cardinals.
Jacoby Brissett is below Arizona Cardinals' usual QB level: −1.9 pts to Arizona Cardinals.

Full analysis

Your teamFinalMatches the market

BALBaltimore RavensQB Tyler HuntleyatATLAtlanta FalconsQB Michael Penix Jr.

Record 3-1, last 4: win, loss, win, winRecord 2-2, last 4: loss, loss, win, win

Final: BAL 30, ATL 23. Model pick lost.

Our model and the market
	Our model	MarketThe point spread and win chances of US sportsbooks: what the betting market expects. We show them only to compare with our model. Nalytix offers no betting services.
Expected margin	ATL by 3.6	ATL by 3
Win chance	ATL 62%	ATL 61%

Why the model sees it this way

Overall strength: Baltimore Ravens (#11 in the league) rates above Atlanta Falcons (#18): +2.3 pts to Baltimore Ravens.
Home field: +1.7 pts to Atlanta Falcons.
Tyler Huntley is below Baltimore Ravens' usual QB level: −4.1 pts to Baltimore Ravens.
Caution: Tyler Huntley's rating rests on few recent games (2 starts in 2 seasons).

Full analysis

Monday, Oct 12

Your team8:15 PM ETFree analysisSlight difference

BUFBuffalo BillsQB Josh AllenatLALos Angeles RamsQB Matthew Stafford

Record 3-1, last 4: win, win, win, lossRecord 2-2, last 4: loss, win, loss, win

Our model and the market
	Our model	MarketThe point spread and win chances of US sportsbooks: what the betting market expects. We show them only to compare with our model. Nalytix offers no betting services.
Expected margin	Even	LA by 3.5
Win chance	50/50	LA 62%

Why the model sees it this way

Overall strength: Buffalo Bills (#5 in the league) rates above Los Angeles Rams (#10): +1.9 pts to Buffalo Bills.
Home field: +1.7 pts to Los Angeles Rams.

Full analysis

Early look at Week 6

These forecasts update once this week's results are in.

Thursday, Oct 15

Your team8:15 PM ET

SEASeattle SeahawksQB Drew LockatDENDenver BroncosQB Bo Nix

Record 3-2, last 5: win, win, loss, win, lossRecord 3-2, last 5: loss, win, win, loss, win

Analyze with AI

Sunday, Oct 18

Your team9:30 AM ET

HOUHouston TexansQB C.J. StroudvsJAXJacksonville JaguarsQB Trevor Lawrence

Record 1-4, last 5: loss, loss, loss, loss, winRecord 4-1, last 5: win, loss, win, win, win

Analyze with AI

Your team1:00 PM ET

CARCarolina PanthersQB Bryce YoungatPHIPhiladelphia EaglesQB Jalen Hurts

Record 2-2, last 4: loss, win, loss, winRecord 2-3, last 5: win, win, loss, loss, loss

Analyze with AI

Your team1:00 PM ET

CHIChicago BearsQB Tyson BagentatATLAtlanta FalconsQB Michael Penix Jr.

Record 3-2, last 5: win, loss, win, win, lossRecord 2-3, last 5: loss, loss, win, win, loss

Analyze with AI

Your team1:00 PM ET

NYJNew York JetsQB Geno SmithatNENew England PatriotsQB Drake Maye

Record 2-3, last 5: win, loss, loss, loss, winRecord 3-2, last 5: loss, win, loss, win, win

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Your team1:00 PM ET

BALBaltimore RavensQB Lamar JacksonatCLECleveland BrownsQB Deshaun Watson

Record 4-1, last 5: win, loss, win, win, winRecord 3-2, last 5: loss, win, win, win, loss

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Your team1:00 PM ET

NONew Orleans SaintsQB Tyler ShoughatNYGNew York GiantsQB Jameis Winston

Record 1-4, last 5: loss, win, loss, loss, lossRecord 3-1-1, last 5: win, loss, win, win, tie

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Your team1:00 PM ET

PITPittsburgh SteelersQB Aaron RodgersatTBTampa Bay BuccaneersQB Jalon Daniels

Record 3-2, last 5: win, loss, win, loss, winRecord 1-4, last 5: loss, loss, loss, loss, win

Analyze with AI

Your team1:00 PM ET

TENTennessee TitansQB Cam WardatINDIndianapolis ColtsQB Daniel Jones

Record 0-5, last 5: loss, loss, loss, loss, lossRecord 2-3, last 5: loss, loss, win, win, loss

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Your team4:05 PM ET

ARIArizona CardinalsQB Jacoby BrissettatLALos Angeles RamsQB Matthew Stafford

Record 1-4, last 5: win, loss, loss, loss, lossRecord 2-2, last 4: loss, win, loss, win

Analyze with AI

Your team4:25 PM ET

BUFBuffalo BillsQB Josh AllenatLVLas Vegas RaidersQB Kirk Cousins

Record 3-1, last 4: win, win, win, lossRecord 3-2, last 5: win, win, win, loss, loss

Analyze with AI

Your team4:25 PM ET

LACLos Angeles ChargersQB Justin HerbertatKCKansas City ChiefsQB Patrick Mahomes

Record 0-5, last 5: loss, loss, loss, loss, lossRecord 4-0, last 4: win, win, win, win

Analyze with AI

Your team8:20 PM ET

DALDallas CowboysQB Dak PrescottatGBGreen Bay PackersQB Jordan Love

Record 2-3, last 5: loss, win, loss, win, lossRecord 3-2, last 5: loss, win, loss, win, win

Analyze with AI

Monday, Oct 19

Your team8:15 PM ET

WASWashington CommandersQB Jayden DanielsatSFSan Francisco 49ersQB Brock Purdy

Record 1-3-1, last 5: loss, loss, win, loss, tieRecord 5-0, last 5: win, win, win, win, win

Analyze with AI