Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
CINCincinnati BengalsQB Joe Burrowat
MIAMiami DolphinsQB Malik Willis
Record 2-2, last 4: win, win, loss, lossRecord 0-4, last 4: loss, loss, loss, loss
Final: CIN 31, MIA 24. Our pick (CIN) won.
Slight differenceWe compare our expected margin with the market line. Less than 1.5 points apart: it matches the market. 1.5 to 3.5: slight difference. 3.5 or more: strong disagreement.
Who wins?
We gave the Cincinnati Bengals a 63% chance to win. The market gave them 74%.
Chance to win · Nalytix NFL model vs. the market
| Team | Our model | MarketWorked out from what US sportsbooks pay for each team to win, with their built-in margin taken out. Shown only for comparison: Nalytix offers no betting services. | GapOur chance minus the market's, in percentage points. +5 means we give this team 5 points more than the market does. |
|---|---|---|---|
 CINCincinnati Bengals | 63% | 74% | −11 |
 MIAMiami Dolphins | 37% | 26% | +11 |
Our modelThe market: the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse
By how much?
We expected the Cincinnati Bengals to win by 4.1 points; the market said 7.
Expected margin in points · our model vs. the market
- Our expected marginHow many points we expect the favorite to win by, on average. Real games vary a lot around it: in our tests, the final margin missed it by about 10 points on average, and the market's line by almost as much.
- CIN by 4.1
- Market lineThe point spread posted by sportsbooks: the margin the betting market expects. Here, the consensus line of US sportsbooks, via nflverse. We show it to compare, not to beat it: over 1,977 games from 2019 to 2026, when our model and the line disagreed, the final margin landed on our model's side 50.2% of the time, no better than a coin flip.
- CIN by 7
How it could go
We expected the final margin to land between CIN by 22 and MIA by 12, 8 times out of 10.The middle 8 in 10 of how 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin. Tested season by season, each season estimated only from the others, the final margin landed inside this range 81.7% of the time.
- CIN wins
- MIA wins
- Our expected margin
- Market line
- Final margin
- 31%CIN by 9 or more
- 32%CIN by 1 to 8
- 23%MIA by 1 to 8
- 14%MIA by 9 or more
How 2,025 NFL games (2019 to 2026) ended when our model expected a similar margin, kept in line with our chance to win above.
Every margin, as a table
| Wins by | CIN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| 2 | 2.2% | 2.3% |
| 3 | 8.6% | 7.4% |
| 4 | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| 5 | 2.5% | 1.6% |
| 6 | 4.1% | 3.7% |
| 7 | 5.4% | 3.2% |
| 8 | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| 9 | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 10 | 3.4% | 2.0% |
| 11 | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| 12 | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| 13 | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| 14 | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| 15 | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 16 | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 17 | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| 18 | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| 19 | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| 20 | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 21 | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 22 | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 23 | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 24 | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| 25 | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| 27 | 0.7% | <0.1% |
| 28 or more | 4.8% | 0.8% |
Why?
The biggest factor is the gap in team strength: 4 points to CIN.
Points each factor adds to the marginEach factor is worth a number of points. Added up, they give our expected margin (last row). Team ratings move after every game, based on the score and the opponent.
- Team strengthCIN +4
- Home fieldMIA +1.7
- QB Malik Willis (MIA)CIN +1.3
- QB Joe Burrow (CIN)CIN +0.5
- Expected marginCIN by 4.1
In plain words
- Overall strength: Cincinnati Bengals (#13 in the league) rates above Miami Dolphins (#29): +4 pts to Cincinnati Bengals.
- Home field: +1.7 pts to Miami Dolphins.
- Malik Willis is below Miami Dolphins' usual QB level: −1.3 pts to Miami Dolphins.
- Caution: Malik Willis's rating rests on few recent games (5 starts in 2 seasons).
Context
Before this game: CIN 2-2, MIA 0-4 this season.
Starting quarterbacks: Joe Burrow (CIN), Malik Willis (MIA).
This season · last 4 games
Cincinnati Bengals2-2
- 17-22 vs JAX (loss)
- 27-30 at PIT (loss)
- 20-6 at HOU (win)
- 33-27 vs TB (win)
Miami Dolphins0-4
- 10-15 at MIN (loss)
- 10-24 vs KC (loss)
- 13-35 at SF (loss)
- 13-27 at LV (loss)